Executive Summary

This survey, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Center for Rural Strategies explores the current political mood in rural America and takes a deeper look at life in rural parts of the United States. The survey finds that, as we move into the 2008 presidential season, rural America is poised to be a battleground, particularly as urban areas remain solidly Democratic. Republicans have not made up the ground they lost among rural voters in the 2006 election and are suffering real erosion in their rural base. Currently, rural America splits evenly between the parties in congressional match ups - 51 percent for Republican candidates, 48 percent Democratic candidates - and favors a generic Democratic candidate for President by 46 to 43 percent.

This research shows ongoing problems for the Republican party, propelled by a strongly negative view of the Bush administration, doubts about the war and, arguably as important looking ahead, a broad sense of economic frustration and economic squeeze in this part of the country. Rural America sees the rest of the country prospering; their assessment of “rural America” is less sanguine.

At the same time, this part of the country remains a deeply conservative place. Republicans still have an opportunity to revive the conservative instincts of this region and reclaim their lost base.

Methodology

This survey was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, in consultation with Republican media firm Greener and Hook, on behalf of the Center for Rural Strategies. The survey, of 804 likely voters in rural parts of the United States, fielded May 31 - June 5, 2007. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.46  percent. For the purposes of this poll, “rural” is defined as counties in nonmetropolitan statistical areas, as designated by the Census.

Key Findings

• Rural voters deliver a narrow plurality to a generic Democratic candidate for President: 46 - 43 percent. In contrast, President Bush won the rural vote in 2004 by 19 points. At the Congressional level, voters prefer Democrats in named trial heats 46 - 44 percent.
• Voters are not inspired by any candidate for president, including Fred Thompson, who draws a modest 22 percent favorable, 18 percent unfavorable score among the 52 percent who are familiar with him.
• Iraq poses challenges for both parties. While a narrow majority opposes the war, nearly 60 percent are close to someone serving or who has served in the fighting.
• President Bush's job approval numbers have dropped from 54 percent approve, 43 percent disapprove just prior to the 2004 election to 44 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove. Nonetheless, rural America remains a deeply conservative place and there is little evidence of shifting ideologies in this survey.